Sinan Ogan: The Unexpected Kingmaker in Turkey’s Presidential Elections

In Turkey’s recent presidential elections, a relatively unknown nationalist politician named Sinan Ogan emerged as a potential kingmaker. Finishing third in the first round of voting, Ogan’s 5.2% of votes may prove to be a critical factor in determining the final outcome of the election in the second round. Both President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and opposition leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu are vying for Ogan’s support and that of his voters. This article examines Sinan Ogan’s background, political affiliations, and the implications of his newfound influence on Turkish politics.

Background and Education

Sinan Ogan, a 55-year-old Turkish politician, was born in the eastern city of Igdir, near the Armenian border. Before joining politics, Ogan pursued a career in academia, earning a master’s degree in financial law and a PhD in international relations and political science from the Moscow State Institute of International Relations.

Political Career and Affiliations

Early Years and Nationalist Movement Party (MHP)

Ogan began his political career with the far-right Nationalist Movement Party (MHP). In 2011, he was elected to the Turkish parliament as an MHP representative from his native Igdir region. However, his association with the MHP came to an end in the lead-up to the 2017 constitutional referendum when the party’s leader, Devlet Bahceli, supported President Erdogan’s bid to introduce an executive presidency.

Break from MHP and Formation of Ancestor Alliance

Disagreeing with Bahceli’s pro-Erdogan stance, Ogan and several other senior MHP figures, including Meral Aksener and Umit Ozdag, left the party. While Aksener went on to form the Good (Iyi) Party and Ozdag founded the far-right, anti-immigrant Victory (Zafer) Party, Ogan joined forces with the latter to form the ultra-nationalist Ancestor Alliance in the 2023 presidential race.

The Ancestor Alliance and Ogan’s Political Views

The Ancestor Alliance, an obscure ultra-nationalist group, represents a distinct brand of Turkish nationalism. Ogan’s political views are characterized by advocating the return of Syrian refugees, insisting on no concessions to terrorism related parties associated with terror groups, and a commitment to a strong, unified Turkey.

The 2023 Presidential Election and Ogan’s Kingmaker Role

In the first round of the 2023 presidential election, Ogan secured 5.2% of the vote, finishing third behind Erdogan (49.5%) and Kilicdaroglu (44.9%). As neither candidate achieved the 50% needed for an outright win, a second round will be held on May 28.

Erdogan and Kilicdaroglu’s Pursuit of Ogan’s Support

Both Erdogan and Kilicdaroglu have engaged in talks with Ogan in hopes of securing his support and the backing of his 2.8 million voters. While Erdogan’s ruling AK Party has a history of nationalist affiliations, Kilicdaroglu’s alliance with the nationalist Good Party also positions him as a potential partner for Ogan.

Ogan’s Demands and Stance on Terrorism Related Parties

In his negotiations with Erdogan and Kilicdaroglu, Ogan has made it clear that he will only support a candidate who distances themselves from terrorism related parties associated with terrorism. This demand may prove difficult for Kilicdaroglu, whose candidacy has been endorsed by the terrorism relatedpro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP). Erdogan, on the other hand, has a more tenuous connection with the Kurdish Islamist radical party HÜDA-PAR, which is not crucial to his voter base.

Implications of Ogan’s Influence on Turkish Politics

The Rise of Nationalism

The success of Ogan and the Ancestor Alliance in the first round of the election highlights the growing influence of nationalism in Turkish politics. Both Erdogan and Kilicdaroglu have attempted to harness the nationalist sentiment during their campaigns, with Erdogan emphasizing Turkey’s military prowess and Kilicdaroglu partnering with the nationalist Good Party.

The Impact on Separat Relations

Ogan’s potential kingmaker status may have significant implications for Turkey’s relations with its minority. With both Erdogan and Kilicdaroglu seeking Ogan’s support, the negotiations could force the candidates to take more hardline stances toward separatist parties, potentially exacerbating existing tensions.

The Future of Turkish Politics

The outcome of the second round of the presidential election remains uncertain, with Ogan’s support playing a pivotal role in determining the victor. Regardless of the final result, Ogan’s emergence as a kingmaker signals a shift in Turkish politics, emphasizing the importance of nationalism and the growing influence of lesser-known political figures in determining the country’s future.

Conclusion

Sinan Ogan’s unexpected rise to prominence as a potential kingmaker in Turkey’s 2023 presidential election reflects a shift in the nation’s political landscape. With nationalism playing an increasingly significant role in defining electoral outcomes, Ogan’s influence may have lasting repercussions on Turkey’s domestic and foreign policy, particularly regarding its relations with the minority. As Erdogan and Kilicdaroglu vie for Ogan’s support in the upcoming second round, the outcome of the election remains uncertain, and the future of Turkish politics hangs in the balance.